2024 Midyear Investment Outlook | BlackRock Investment Institute

2024 MIDYEAR INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

July 9, 2024 | The world could be undergoing a transformation akin to past technological revolutions. But the speed, size and impact of that investment is highly uncertain. We think leaning into the transformation and adapting as the outlook changes will be key.

Read our midyear outlook (PDF) Read our midyear outlook (PDF)

Investment themes

Getting real

We see a new wave of investment into the real economy transforming economies and markets. Spotting winners will require deep insights on the technology being developed – and the potential disruption it entails.

Leaning into risk

We look for investments that can do well across scenarios and lean into the current most likely one. For us, that’s a concentrated artificial intelligence scenario where a handful of AI winners can keep driving stocks.

Spotting the next wave

Investors should look for where the next wave of investment opportunity may come. We stay dynamic and ready to overhaul asset allocations when outcomes can be starkly different.

Read details of our midyear outlook:

Paragraph-2,Free Form Html-1,Paragraph-3,Free Form Html-2,Story Card-1,Paragraph-4

Paragraph-5,Paragraph-6,Advance Static Table-1,Paragraph-7,Advance Static Table-2,Paragraph-8,Advance Static Table-3

Free Form Html-3,Paragraph-9,Free Form Html-4,Free Form Html-5,Free Form Html-6,Paragraph-10

Embracing transformation

The regime of greater macro and market volatility has taken hold, shaped by supply constraints like shrinking working-age populations. The result? Higher inflation and interest rates and weaker growth relative to pre-pandemic – and elevated public debt.

But now investment opportunities transcend the macro backdrop. We see waves of transformation on the horizon, driven by five mega forces – or structural shifts. We see three of them spurring major capital spending: the race to build out AI, the low-carbon transition and the rewiring of supply chains. The size, speed and impact of that investment is highly uncertain, but we think it could transform economies and markets on a scale rarely seen in history. We lean into the concentrated AI scenario where a handful of AI winners can keep driving stocks, see details below.

In this new regime, the real economy matters more. Our first theme is Getting real. We see the biggest opportunities in the real economy as investment flows into infrastructure, energy systems and technology – and the people driving them. Nvidia’s recent surge reflects the big investment expectations from the rise of AI. See the chart below.

Nvidia and the AI moment

A potential investment boom

Mega forces are driving this transformation and are starting to unleash massive investment into the real economy: infrastructure, energy systems, advanced technology – and people.

Our second theme is Leaning into risk. We think investors should take risk more deliberately now, across multiple dimensions. First, consider the time horizon. Second, be deliberate in choosing the type of risk exposure. Some U.S. company stocks are now larger in value than the entire benchmark index of some nations, showing how they can dominate broad index exposures. This emphasizes why investors must be deliberate with their risk-taking. See the chart below. Third, be deliberate about blending different sources of return across public and private markets.

Companies larger than country stock markets

Weighing five near-term scenarios

We worked with BlackRock portfolio managers to develop five, distinct scenarios for the near-term outlook of six- to 12-months. They help put parameters around varying states of the world – albeit they do not capture the many potential outcomes beyond that horizon.

These scenarios span a wide range of outcomes.

Concentrated AI

AI-driven growth boost not enough to offset other structural drags. Inflation pressure is ongoing and policy rates stay high for longer.

High rates, hard landing

Sticky inflation rules out rate cuts, and strong demand could trigger further hikes. Growth slows sharply. AI valuations hit hard.

Subdued growth, stubborn

Subdued growth, stubborn inflation

Growth slows to a lower trend pace, inflation is sticky above target and policy rates stay higher.

Broad productivity gains

Broad productivity gains (AI and capex boom)

AI-driven growth is broad based, lifting potential output. Inflation is muted and policy rates are cut sharply.

Rescued hard landing

Rate hikes overwhelm a broad-based AI-driven growth boost. Inflation falls below target. Central banks deliver deep rate cuts.

Ready to adapt

We think companies may need to revamp business models and invest to stay competitive. For investors, it means company fundamentals will matter even more. The gap between winners and losers could be wider than ever, in our view.

We look for investments that can do well across scenarios and lean into the current most likely one. For us, that’s a concentrated AI scenario where a handful of AI winners can keep driving stocks.

We stand ready to adapt as and when another scenario – potentially suddenly – becomes more likely as the transformation unfolds. So our third theme is Spotting the next wave. This is about being dynamic and ready to overhaul asset allocations when outcomes – and investment opportunities - can be vastly different.

Key market views

U.S. stocks: We stay overweight U.S. stocks and the AI theme on a six- to 12- month view.
Japanese stocks: Our overweight to Japanese stocks is one of our highest-conviction views on an improving outlook of higher inflation, wage growth and corporate pricing power.
Private markets: We see private markets as an avenue to tap into the early winners and the infrastructure needed for the investment boom ahead. The real economy will be a focal point, with infrastructure, energy systems, and technology investments playing a critical role in shaping the future. Still, private markets are complex and not suitable for all investors.

Ready to adapt

Our scenarios framework helps ground our views on a tactical horizon. Yet we could change our stance quickly if a different scenario were to look more likely. This is one reason why we may need to think about strategic asset allocation differently in the future – building on our long-held view that strategic views should be dynamic in this new environment. It is no longer possible to base strategic views on just one central view of the future state of the world with some deviation around it, in our view.

Big calls

Our highest conviction views on tactical (6-12 month) and strategic (long-term) horizons, July 2024

	Reasons
Tactical
AI and U.S. equities	We have high conviction that AI can keep driving returns in most scenarios. We see its buildout and adoption creating opportunities across sectors. The AI theme has driven U.S. stock gains and solid corporate earnings, making us overweight U.S. stocks overall.
Japanese equities	This is our highest conviction equity view thanks to support from the return of mild inflation, shareholder-friendly corporate reforms and a Bank of Japan that is cautiously normalizing policy – rather than tightening.
Income in fixed income	The income cushion bonds provide has increased across the board in a higher rate environment. We like quality income in short-term bonds and credit. We’re neutral long-term U.S. Treasuries.
Strategic
Private credit	We think private credit is going to earn lending share as banks retreat – and at attractive returns relative to public credit risk.
Fixed income granularity	We prefer inflation-linked bonds as we see inflation closer to 3% on a strategic horizon. We also like short-term government bonds, and the UK stands out for long-term bonds.
Equity granularity	We favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. EMs at the cross current of mega forces – like India and Saudi Arabia – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten our outlook.

Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective, July 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.

Tactical granular views

Six- to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, July 2024

Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook – and what’s in the price. The table below reflects this and, importantly, leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns. We don’t think this environment is conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes but creates more space for alpha.

Asset		Tactical view	Commentary
Equities
United States			We are overweight given our positive view on the AI theme. Valuations for AI beneficiaries are supported as tech companies keep beating high earnings expectations. We think upbeat sentiment can broaden out. Falling inflation is easing pressure on corporate profit margins.
Europe			We are underweight. Valuations are looking more attractive. A pickup in growth and European Central Bank rate cuts support an ongoing earnings recovery.
U.K.			We are overweight. Political stability and a growth pickup could improve investor sentiment, lifting the UK's low valuation relative to other DM stock markets.
Japan			We are overweight. Mild inflation and shareholder-friendly reforms are positives. We see the BOJ normalizing policy – not tightening aggressively. A weak yen is a drag on returns for international investors.
Emerging markets			We are neutral. The growth and earnings outlook is mixed. We see valuations for India and Taiwan looking high.
China			We are neutral. We see risks from weak consumer spending, even with measured policy support. An aging population and geopolitical risks are structural challenges.
Fixed income
Short U.S. Treasuries			We are overweight. We prefer short-term government bonds for income as interest rates stay higher for longer.
Long U.S. Treasuries			We are neutral. Markets have cut expectations of Fed rate cuts and term premium is close to zero. We think yields will keep swinging in both directions on new economic data.
Global inflation-linked bonds			We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation and growth may matter more near term.
Euro area government bonds			We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates in line with our expectations and 10-year yields are off their highs. Political developments remain a risk to fiscal sustainability.
UK Gilts			We are neutral. Gilt yields have tightened to U.S. Treasuries and market pricing of future yields is in line with our view.
Japan government bonds			We are underweight. Stock returns look more attractive to us. We see some of the least attractive returns in JGBs.
China government bonds			We are neutral. Bonds are supported by looser policy. Yet we find yields more attractive in short-term DM paper.
U.S. agency MBS			We are neutral. We see agency MBS as a high-quality exposure in a diversified bond allocation and prefer it to IG.
Short-term IG credit			We are overweight. Short-term bonds better compensate for interest rate risk. We prefer Europe over the U.S.
Long-term IG credit			We are underweight. Spreads are tight, so we prefer taking risk in equities from a whole portfolio perspective. We prefer Europe over the U.S.
Global high yield			We are neutral. Spreads are tight, but the total income makes it more attractive than IG. We prefer Europe.
Asia credit			We are neutral. We don’t find valuations compelling enough to turn more positive.
Emerging market - hard currency			We are neutral. The asset class has performed well due to its quality, attractive yields and EM central bank rate cuts. We think those rate cuts may soon be paused.
Emerging market - local currency			We are neutral. Yields have fallen closer to U.S. Treasury yields, and EM central banks look to be turning more cautious after cutting policy rates sharply.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The statements on alpha do not consider fees. Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

Euro-denominated tactical granular views

Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, July 2024

Asset	Tactical view	Commentary
Equities
Europe ex UK		We are underweight relative to the U.S. and Japan – our preferred markets. Valuations are looking more attractive. A pickup in growth and European Central Bank rate cuts support an ongoing earnings recovery.
Germany		We are neutral. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive relative to peers. The earnings outlook looks set to brighten as global manufacturing activity bottoms out and financing conditions start to ease.
France		We are underweight given modestly supportive valuations. While only about a minor share of French blue chips' revenues and operations are directly tied to domestic activity, investors will likely pay attention to any shifts in the business conditions for French domestic and multinational firms following the snap elections.
Italy		We are underweight. Valuations dynamics are supportive relative to peers, but recent growth and earnings outperformance seems largely due to significant fiscal stimulus in 2022-2023 that cannot be sustained over the next few years.
Spain		We are neutral. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive relative to peers. The utilities sector looks set to benefit from an improving economic backdrop and advances in AI. Political uncertainty remains a potential risk.
Netherlands		We are underweight. The Dutch stock markets' tilt to technology and semiconductors, a key beneficiary of higher demand for AI, is offset by relatively less favorable valuations and earnings outlook than their European peers.
Switzerland		We are underweight, in line with our broad European market positioning. The earnings outlook has brightened, but valuations remain high versus peers. The index’s defensive tilt will likely be less supported as long as global risk appetite holds up, we think. We keep an eye on how their earnings outlook evolves from here.
UK		We are overweight. Political stability and a growth pickup could improve investor sentiment, lifting the UK's low valuation relative to other DM stock markets.
Fixed income
Euro area government bonds		We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates broadly in line with our expectations and 10-year yields are off their highs. Political developments remain a risk to fiscal sustainability.
German bunds		We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates broadly in line with our expectations and 10-year yields are off their highs.
French OATs		We are neutral. The European Union has already warned France for breaching fiscal rules and its sovereign credit rating was downgraded earlier this year. Post elections, elevated political uncertainty given risks to fiscal consolidation and a slower pace of structural reforms remain challenges.
Italian BTPs		We are neutral. The spread over German Bunds looks tight against a trajectory for the debt-GDP ratio in the next few years which is stable at best. Other domestic factors remain supportive, with growth holding up quite well relative to the rest of the euro area and Italian households showing a significant willingness to increase their direct holding of BTPs in an environment of high nominal rates and yields.
UK gilts		We are neutral. Gilt yields have tightened to U.S. Treasuries and market pricing of future yields is in line with our view.
Swiss government bonds		We are neutral. The Swiss National Bank has cut policy rates twice this year due to reduced inflationary pressure. But it is unlikely to cut rates much further from here.
European inflation-linked bonds		We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation may matter more near term. Breakevens came down further on the short end, following the lower May and June inflation data, making European inflation-linked bonds less attractive.
European investment grade credit		We are neutral European investment grade credit, with a preference for short- to medium-term, high-quality pockets because of their income role in portfolios. We maintain our regional preference for European investment grade over the U.S. given more attractive valuations amid decent income.
European high yield		We are overweight. We find the income potential attractive. We still prefer European high yield given its more appealing valuations, higher quality and lower duration than in the U.S. Spreads compensate for risks of a potential pick-up in defaults, in our view.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, July 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

View outlook in charts